In a market downturn Bitcoin miners look to hedge their risk exposure with financial derivatives.


00:32 Intro

00:48 What does Genesis do?

02:57 Short term prediction

08:13 Fed & macro

10:19 USD inflows

14:26 Genesis financial products

20:48 PoW vs PoS financial products

28:59 Miner hedging Miner volume

30:59 Miner selling BTC

Audio Version


Foxley: Hello and welcome back to the Compass Podcast. Today on the show we have Joshua Lim head of derivatives is at Genesis Global. Joshua is an expert on all things market structure for Bitcoin and altcoins. We talked about the Feds interest rate moves, how the stock market and Bitcoin mining markets are correlated, and what hedging instruments miners are using during this downturn. Josh, thank you so much for joining us on the Compass Podcast really excited for this conversation. It's a little bit different than I thought it was gonna be at first, but that's okay, we're making a quick pivot to talk about some other things. Can you just start off the conversation, your background Bitcoin when you got involved with it? And then also, I want to start moving over into talk about what Genesis does with, with asset market?

Lim: Yeah, absolutely. Um, I'm really glad to be able to join you. You know, I work at Genesis Trading, which is a large sell side dealing desk, we facilitate a lot of liquidity, you know, Spot trading, derivatives trading, as well as financing transactions for counterparties that are accessing crypto from either a traditional markets lens, you know, so basically, some of the newer entrants to the space, you know, hedge funds, asset managers, corporate treasuries, as well as the guys that have been in the space for a very long time. And I've been, you know, among, among the earliest customers of Genesis, which include the mining segment, a lot of high net worth individuals, you know, Project treasuries and the like, and crypto native hedge funds is another big category for us as well. So we kind of provide all the, you know, financial markets, infrastructure services, you know, specific products, anything that's sort of like high touch and customized to people in the space we try to offer them. Yeah,

Foxley: Totally. And it's we're joining this conversation at an interesting time within the markets, right. So the Fed has turned interest rates up over the last few weeks, that was noted back in December with those leak notes, and then think we're at like 75 basis points. The market itself responded pretty interestingly to it, or I guess, predictably, more than anything. So we saw equity sell off, over like, compared to like the last six weeks or so they've sold off, Bitcoin is down as well. It's whether it's an interesting part, some some interesting storms with like the Terra Luna thing. And so miners, which was basically our audience are in a unique situation where bitcoin is down, their costs are up, because a lot of people are still building right now. And then difficulty is also up. We won't we'll get into like loan structure or other things like that later, and derivatives and whatnot. I'm curious to get your lay of the landscape now from from a trading perspective, and from an asset management perspective. What are things going to look like going into the summer? And how are you reading the tea leaves right now?

Lim: Yeah, it's a great question that comes up a lot, especially with more, you know, technologists and crypto native people in the space that are maybe less attuned to what's going on broader macro markets. Yeah, for us, like, what we've noticed over the last two years to three years, as more institutional market participants come into crypto is just how much crypto has become embedded in the broader portfolio of macro tradable products, right, so a lot of these hedge funds, you know, whether they're macro trading firms that sort of allocate a little bit into crypto amongst kind of a broader portfolio of equities and fixed income products, and FX and commodities. They are, you know, trading into and out of this asset class in the same way that they would, you know, equities, right. So, basically, they view it as another risk instrument. That's why if you look at correlations across, you know, risk assets, like equities, like, you know, certain commodities, measures of growth, they're pretty closely tied to the price performance in Bitcoin, right, Bitcoin and eath. And a lot of the major crypto assets. So I think what we saw earlier this year, and just kind of stretches even back to kind of December when markets started to price in, you know, the Fed raising interest rates, trying to curb inflation, trying to sort of like dampen the, the effects in the economy of, you know, obviously, the huge liquidity bomb that kind of kind of dropped into things post COVID was a de risking and just abroad de risking we saw people I think, start with riskier assets, like crypto really start taking down that risk, you know, at the beginning of the year. And if you think about what that means, that means, you know, there's going to be an underperformance in the large cap tokens be because those are the assets that are really being held by these macro hedge funds, right? So those guys took down the crypto risk first, and then they started, you know, de risking across equities. So you saw sort of like tech, you know, NASDAQ is a good proxy for the sector getting hit. And then you saw sort of more recently things like retail stocks, you know, like Target and things like that, where, you know, the secondary effects of inflation, you know, reducing the profit margins are starting to come through, right. So, that's what we're seeing in the markets is just sort of this gradual derisking, across different different assets. And so crypto has been in a lot of ways, de risked already. And I think the cherry on top in the last month was basically this, this, you know, the Terra Luna episode, which really caused this last leg of really de risking across the space, we saw a lot of sort of really popular and crowded trades get taken off, including, you know, eath, BTC, long short, right, like the long each short BTC type of pair trade where people were kind of positioning ahead of the merge. You know, at the end of last year, that looks broke point oh, eight, it looked really poised to kind of like, keep going, you know, hit point one, a lot of people were positioned for it. And then obviously, as that wave of de risking started to happen, that has broken down and it didn't, it hit, you know, point of six a couple times earlier in the month. So that's kind of what we're seeing across the board. Just a little bit of taking off risk. I think now that acquisition has started to stabilize here. What that really means is, you know, we're gonna see the same thing play out in reverse, right, so like, people start to allocate back into investments that look on a valuation basis attractive. So, you know, value stocks, things like that, you know, but a lot of metrics, even technology, stocks, like Google look pretty attractive at this at these levels. So as money starts to flow in there, then they'll start to flow back into bitcoin right as the kind of like gateway into all after. And then you'll see, I think eath and other altcoin starts out before from here.

Foxley: I liked the way you laid that out, just starting from the top and going all the way down to Bitcoin and large cap Kryptos would stay with the Fed thing for a second, I recently listened to odd lots podcast, Tracy Holloway, Joe weisenthal, talking with Ed Harrison, who's a business editor over at Bloomberg talking about like, what what is the Fed doing? Like, what is their game plan at this point. And, of course, a lot of this is reading into, like Jerome Powell tone, reading into, like, whatever the Fed is putting out in their notes and trying to make sense of the mess that is over at the Fed. And his position on it was that the Fed is trying to work in the most optionality into their into their game plan right now. They're trying to raise rates quickly, while they can, in hopes that if something bad happens, they are able to, again, lower rates and then increase, increase. Maybe a better way of saying is like lower rates so that you can help the market get along? Again, when when there's a crunch? And that'd be like the worst case scenario, right? Be curious to get your take on it. Where do you see the Fed? Turning from here? Are you expecting more interest rates? Pushed or interest rates to continue pushing up? Are you expecting more quantitative tightening? Obviously, we saw a little bit of an announcement around that this morning.

Lim: Yeah, not a fortune teller. But I guess if you look at market measures of inflation expectations, those have come in, right. So basically, you know, looking at, like, you know, tenure yields, or, you know, for kind of inflation breakevens those types of measures, it looks like the market is pricing in that inflation is taught in a way. And, like I don't, I'm not an economist, and I don't claim to have any sort of special insight into this. But I would say like, that is a little bit of a optimistic interpretation of where the world is especially kind of in a broader, you know, secular view. You know, there is a lot of sort of resource competition in the world today, right between sort of like US and China, there is still sort of this transition that the world is making to a greener sort of world. And, you know, a lot of that transition away from fossil fuels has to involve sort of, you know, inflation, you know, inflation or sort of, like, price increases in commodities, like, like base metals or copper or things like that. So, it is, in my view, like are, you know, pretty optimistic to sort of like make a case that you know, inflation sort of been slayed and you know, it's time for the Fed to kind of like, rein back their hawkish impulses and sort of lead equities. breathe again. I don't know if that's gonna happen or not. I mean, it could very well be sort of like the the base case going forward. But from our you know, from my personal point of view, it makes sense to sort of take a cautious stance on this, and kind of wait to see how it plays out, right. I mean, we're, I as a trader, I'm it's data dependent, and it's going to the Fed is.

Foxley: Okay. Okay, that makes sense. And I want to go back to something you said earlier about, like, how inflows affect the larger market cap, crypto coins out there, like Bitcoin? Or like, Aetherium? Can you just sort of lay that out? I think our audience would be, that'd be very helpful to talk from like, top of the funnel into bottom of the funnel? Like you said, a lot, a lot of these value investors only willing to invest in larger coins like Bitcoin, if, like their other assets are doing well,

Lim: For sure, for sure. Yeah. So, you know, I think it's useful to kind of divide crypto into categories, right? So Bitcoin is in a lot of ways in its own class as a sort of store of value, it has this narrative around it that it is independent of any single sovereign, right. And so, and it's a, you know, censorship resistant way of storing and transferring money. And it's something that I think, has to exist, they exist natively in kind of a digital, you know, internet, first world, right? So people need to have internet natives, source source of value. And I think that's why we're all in this industry, and why we're probably listening to this podcast in particular. So I think that narrative is a very powerful one in this current day and age, right, because we are moving to a world where there's a lot of sort of, it's a fractured world, it's a multipolar world. And that narrative has become like us, the thesis around Bitcoin has become more dominant over time. And that's, you know, I think that plays into sort of the way that Bitcoin dominance could increase and has sort of increased over time here, especially as some of the arrows come out of, you know, high inflation, curve, tokens, tokens that have launched in the latest cycle over the last two years, you know, I tend to think of them as sort of, like, small to mid cap names, that have come out in the sort of like, 20, sort of 2018 to 2020 vintage, like that kind of bucket, right. So these are tokens that generally have had some venture investment into it, right, some percentage of the token supply is closely held by like insiders and early investors. And, you know, as we, as these tokens age, this is kind of like the middle of their supply curve, where there tends to be more supply, unlocking right over time, you know, generally a lot of projects on lock, you know, on a schedule of, you know, one to four to seven years, you know, depending on kind of which layer one it's on, and the types of venture investors that are involved in it. So, it's hard to overcome, especially in a range bound or bear market, like we're in now, that amount of supply hitting the market, right, there's, you know, the true believers are the people who are kind of in it for the long haul already hold whatever amount of allocation into a particular project that they want to have, the marginal buyers are tapped out, right. So it really does take this sort of like, new impulse, new sort of animal spirits, you know, bull market to start, and you have to see that start with the majors first, because those have a sort of like, exogenous reason for existence, like there is a reason for Bitcoin to exist, there is a reason for eath to exist because, you know, this global kind of computation platform and the money will flow into those things first, before it kind of disperses across to other projects that have utility building on top of those sort of like base layers. So that's that's kind of how it usually works. In crypto. You know, we've all probably seen a couple of cycles of this play out.

Foxley: Yeah, totally. Thanks for laying that out. So let's move over more to Genesis and talking about your day to day function. And obviously there's there's some overlap with Bitcoin mining here as much as like at the asset Bitcoin has an overlap and what you guys are able to touch with your desk, be curious to to get some information about how you see yourself positioning these trades that you guys are making and also positioning like any sort of financial primitives or financial products that you guys are creating for others. The impetus for this whole podcast was a recent Bloomberg article that you were quoted in from David hip Han talking about how some of these public miners have set up really nice hedges for themselves to protect themselves in case of a market downturn. As we both know and many listeners of the podcast know Bitcoin miners had an interesting year last year, and now they're feeling a lot of pain going into this year, they've had basically only down only vibes like 80% in some are not quite a percent, but like, think 60 70% In some cases, like pretty brutal for some public miners out there. So let's get into derivatives for public miners in a second. But if we get started out, getting an understanding of how Genesis is looking at the financial products it's creating for that for any participant really, I will I won't put you in a box. Yeah,

Lim: I mean, Genesis, like every other company in the space has really evolved over time to kind of meet the moment of, you know, what, what is needed in the market, right. So Genesis started really in like 2013 as, as the sort of like capital markets business within digital currency group, which is like a large conglomerate run by Barry Silbert, which owns, you know, Genesis grayscale coin desk, a bunch of other a bunch of other pieces. And as part of that, you know, that was the initial kind of set of products was around spot trading, right. So it was sort of dealing with miners in the sense of, you know, helping them to liquidate assets that were mined assets on their balance sheet. You know, it was working with a lot of, let's say, high net worth individuals that wanted to allocate and crypto for the first time, or corporate treasuries or, you know, even exchanges that needed to liquidate, you know, fees that they were collecting and Bitcoin, denominated sort of exchange fees, that those sorts of things. And then over time, the set of products really evolved, right. So the next thing to be added and really to evolve as, as a as a separate category was lending, right lending and borrowing of crypto assets. And that really started with just Bitcoin and eath. Because those were by far, like the largest market caps, and there was a lot of demand for people, especially coming into and out of the sort of Ico bubble. This is 2017 2018. To manage risk hedge exposures to sort of even get short, right? Like, I'm sure we all remember, there was like a pretty vocal hedge fund out there, coming out of the ICO bowl that was kind of pounding the table, like we want to get short eath, right. It's like the funding currency for all these Ico fundraisers, and people need to liquidate it. And if it gets bad enough, it's gonna go way down, because everyone's gonna sell at the same time. That was kind of the thesis. So yeah, so that was you know that that was one of the, you know, the sort of trading narratives that required sort of like a business like Genesis, and there's other lenders out there to provide supply in tokens for lending and borrowing. And then the other major use case that came about over time, let's just there's such a big demand for market making and liquidity providers and sort of market neutral, you know, quant trading firms to borrow assets so that they can provide two sided markets on exchanges, right, or to provide liquidity into dexus. Right? Into AMS. So, you know, once we started to sort of like, explore all these use cases, and develop all these bilateral trading relationships, is it sort of a great two way business, right, a lot of people want to generate yield with assets that they have, they would lend it to us, and then a lot of people would want to borrow them to sort of put them to productive use. Now, the next step beyond that is really once you help people sort of finance their trading activities and crypto is to sort of introduce even more sort of capital efficient, capital efficient ways to sort of get access trade, crypto, hedge risk, all that kind of stuff. So the next layer is derivatives, right? So that's kind of when I joined Genesis two years ago is to help build out this business. And when people think about derivatives and crypto, it's usually, you know, professional swaps, right? Professional swaps futures, there's a lot of listed products on exchanges like binance, and floaty and derivated. Okay, X FTX, that sort of meet that general specification of the derivative. But not every trading firm in the space has access or even like corporate or counterparty that we deal with has access to those venues. And some people are restricted from trading on certain venues, or maybe it's not in their mandate to be able to trade sort of like perpetual swaps, things like that. So, you know, there's sort of a need for a firm like Genesis to sort of intermediate some of those transactions, be a good counterparty to people help them sort of even structure things that are a little bit more bespoke to the particular types of needs that they have. Right. So for minors, the ones that are actively engaged in hedging, you know, there might be sort of use cases around selling call options, which is basically you're capping sort of the return of Bitcoin that you're holding on your balance sheet. But in return for capping that performance, meaning like you're willing to sell at a certain price above the current spot price, you get some premium, right so you collect some amount of money upfront. In exchange for giving up the potential upside, now, you know, the asset doesn't trade up to that level, then you're not giving anything up, you're just collecting some premium. But because there's some probability of that, you know, giving up that upside, you get some some payment up front. And similarly, you can buy that same sort of protection on the downside, or you could buy a put option, which basically protects you from adverse moves in Bitcoin lower right. So below a certain price point, you are no longer affected by the price of Bitcoin going lower, and you have the right to basically sell Bitcoin at that particular strike price, the strike of that put option. So basically, that's the most common structure, right, either selling calls and keeping the premium or selling calls to use that premium to buy put options. And then there's a lot of ways to put it together. There's just a lot of variations you can you can build off that.

Foxley: Yeah, there's definitely a lot of variations we should get to second, I want to go back to something you said a second ago, though wishes about how a lot of these other coins out there proof of stake coins, you guys are able to package financial primitives together for them. And I'm curious to get your take, do you find that there are more ways for leveraging your position as a proof of stake network versus proof of work in terms of getting more access to financial capital? There might be some sort of way to do that, just because proof of stakes, native way of accruing value and securing the network is very different from proof of work. But I'd be curious to get your take.

Lim: Yeah, I mean, the main difference from a financial markets perspective is there's an additional variable, right, which is, what is the yield that you would collect over time for holding an asset, a proof of stake asset. And in a proof of work network, obviously, you're rewarded with some tokens, but those tokens themselves don't have any inheritance or protocol level yield embedded into it, right. So just holding that token or staking, it doesn't generate additional benefits. On top of on top of what you've already heard. So the yield is, is a variable yield, right? It can change over time, according to some, you know, programmatic formula, or it can sort of fluctuate depending on sort of market forces, the number of people participating, you know, your own ability to sort of like validate transactions and things like that. So what we found is, there's an active market, basically, for taking, you know, staking tokens and sort of hedging the risk out either there's two types of risks, right, when you when you're staking token into a proof of stake network, it's either the market price of that token, so you're taking exposure to whether those tokens go up in value or down in value. And then the second is sort of the the yield itself on those tokens, assuming the price stays constant, can go up or down, right, like I said, according to some formula, it's sort of method or just by market supply and demand. So the, we can sort of help people hedge both, in some sense. So the first type of hedging would just be to neutralize your market exposure by same thing you would do for Bitcoin, you would, you know, you could sell calls, you could buy puts, you could sell a forward, which is basically a linear instrument that neutralizes so basically, if, you know, let's say, dot goes up in value, and you sold a forward, you would lose money on the forward because you sold it, but you would make money on the underlying asset going up in value. So you're neutralized from any sort of price movement. The second type of hedging, which is like more of the yield hedging is really a combination of two things, you're basically you're basically buying spot, which sort of lets you get exposure to a floating rate, which is the floating rate is basically it's a fluctuating rate based on, you know, how much you're able to earn from staging. And you sell a Ford, which, when you sell a forward, you're basically locking in the price of that asset in the future. And inherently, you're locking in sort of the embedded amount of yield that you would collect over certain time periods. So when you do that, sort of like, people sometimes call it like interest rate, curve trading. So basically, you're taking two points in the future, and you're sort of buying one and selling the other, you're locking in some inherent sort of implied yield in that time period. So that's a pretty company, it's becoming more common, especially as the market cap of the sticky assets increases. And it has a lot over over the years. And the variety of those assets increase and and also just the number of market participants that are engaged in staking, whether it's hedge funds that you know, are holding these assets on the balance sheet, or, you know, actual sort of operating companies that need to participate in these networks for various reasons. Or venture firms that have these tokens from from being early supporters or You know, staking infrastructure companies that are running nodes for themselves or for their customers or exchanges, you know, there's there's just a huge variety of users now, all of which have some exposure to the yield and the price of the underlying asset. And they're, you know, willing to transfer that risk at a certain price. So, again, that's like one of these things where we can help intermediate and fine, you know, the clearing price for for that type of risk.

Foxley: Totally, totally, this reminds me of some conversations I've had with some mining pools that are also trying to get into financialization, because it's just like all cash flows, right? Like there's How do you like take these cash flows, and create a financial product for whatever type of customer walks in the door, maybe one customer wants very, like low risk yield, maybe someone's like, a little more hyper aggressive and able to package things together. I don't know. f2 pool is a huge money pool, I think they have like 25% of Bitcoin networks hash rates from around there. They also have a staking pool. Things like steak fish, or something like that. It's like a funny name. Yeah. So they, there's definitely a lot of financialization within Bitcoin mining. So let's pivot back to that for a second, if you can want to just take a brief overlook. And I know this is more of a place of work that you operate in with multiple partners. So I'm not going to stick your feet too close to the fire here on this on this question, but I'm curious to get your take on what sort of financial derivatives some of these public miners are using to hedge their positions, Marathon, obviously very famous, or within Bitcoin mining circles for the moves they made last year by converting some senior debt notes or something of another and able to create like a, a low interest way to fund their operations till 2026. I'm not familiar enough with it to give a good summary of the the whole story, but it is important just for our audience, and for miners to know like, what derivatives are out there, and what derivatives have public miners been using to date to fund their operations?

Lim: Yeah, so um, you know, one thing that is important to a lot of miners is, you know, one is reducing risk, right? So if you're mining, you inherently have some long exposure to Bitcoin, you want Bitcoin to go up? So how do you reduce that exposure? And one way is to sell derivatives that give you sort of that negative correlation, right. So you know, one thing that's common, and I think you mentioned that that Bloomberg article that came out is something we see a lot of this, which is basically selling call options to generate yield. And the other thing that's important for a lot of miners is sort of ensuring that you have some sort of cash flow to fund operating costs. So, you know, obviously, in like a more easy money environment where it's easy to raise debt denominated in dollars or raise equity. You know, there wasn't really a lot of need to sell, you know, bitcoin cash flows, there wasn't really a need to sort of like hedge the risk, in some sense, right. But as conditions have reversed, and you're sort of entering this market, where it's a little bit tighter, you know, valuations have come in a lot, it's maybe less attractive to raise equity financing. People are starting to think the other way, right, so how do I take my existing, say, pool of declines? And I'm sitting on? And then how do I sort of monetize that and one way to monetize it is to sell the the call options basically give you two things, they give you the ability to sell those coins when they go up in value, because you're actually obligated to sell those coins, because you've sold a call against them. So you get dollars back as Bitcoin rallies, which is the right way to risk that you want it. And then you also get some yield some dollar yield from just sort of systematically selling this call options. Even if Bitcoin doesn't go up in value, you would collect the premium. So from a cash flow perspective, and from sort of a market risk hedging perspective, it makes sense.

Foxley: Also, yeah, I'd be curious to know I don't know if you can lead yourself or even if this is a good question to ask, but from your guys's book right now, do miners make up a significant portion of the clients you service or is there just like not enough volume there because there's only 900 Bitcoin mined per day and it's split up among so many participants?

Lim: It's it's a part of our book but it's not the overwhelming amount of our of our not an overwhelming percentage, I would say it's it is a big driver and especially for the firm's that have a lot of assets on their balance sheet already that have accumulated over the years. Right. So it's not not necessarily hedging, like the 900 decline that are produced daily, but it's really agitating accumulated balance sheet that's already kind of assets on the balance sheet. I would say we see basically a fairly two way amount of trading in these call options from miners that would be selling it but also from you know, other types of market participants that would be buyers. And if you think about who would be buyers, it's a lot of times it's, you know, speculators or sort of very tactical hedge funds that are trying to position ahead of, let's say, a short squeeze that they see on the horizon, right, or some sort of specific catalysts, like, let's say, they expect, you know, some macro data to come out that shows, you know, inflation eased and we think the market will rally on the back of that, that that would be sort of a good reason to go long call options on a very short, dated basis. And so there is, you know, there's a healthy sort of, like exchange of risk, and that kind of what is what sets you know, market pricing for options in venues like Darebin, which is like one of the largest sort of options exchanges in the world, there's, there's a lot of market participants that are sort of, you know, actively trading it daily.

Foxley: Awesome. Okay, that helps me make sense of the landscape. Final question for you, then you're off the hook for me for today. And, again, appreciate your time on curious to get your take on where this market goes for miners. So the story of 2021 was miners hodling, their Bitcoin, leaving it on their balance sheet, not really touching it, some of them were blowing out. So we had Jamie from HUD eight on the podcast a year ago now. So we need to get back on. And at the time, she said that they were lending it out through Celsius, like a big way that they had on the balance sheet to get additional yield. Then we also had Ben from bit farms on the show and they said they're huddling. They're not they're Bitcoin says and cold storage, they don't do anything with it. And we've seen a lot of different people take different strategies. The last two months, we've seen people sell right sold about 500 Bitcoin cathedra, Bitcoin sold, like $8 million worth of bitcoin, this last month. So obviously, market conditions have changed within one year a ton, but doesn't mean that we're not going to see market conditions continue to change. So I myself might some might huddle some might lend out their Bitcoin, where do you think that market goes going into the rest of the year? And tied up in that is a little bit of a Bitcoin speculative price SEC call for you, so apologies for that.

Lim: So, so my view on this is that, you know, there is still some degree of sort of de risking and liquidation and sort of sorting out like, amongst the wreckage of of what happened in the last few months with with Terra and other things kind of where, you know, where the chips lie, in some sense, like where you know, who is kind of coming out of this, who is going to kind of really shut down business, you know, potentially, and is who's perfectly fine. I think the vast majority people are perfectly fine. Like, you know, I think the contagion effects were relatively well contained. So I do think we we chop around, you know, mostly because I think just risk assets in general are kind of in this, this spot where we have to kind of build enough risk appetite back in the market, before things sort of trend back higher. And so yeah, I think in the short term, that's gonna be choppy. Another thing that's sort of like weighing on Bitcoin prices, is the fact that there is a lot of supply of these call options that are sitting with dealers, like like Genesis and others. And that that means that, you know, on every rally of Bitcoin, when we're sort of re hedging our derivatives book that has all these call options, we're sellers of Bitcoin. And it's not just us, it's like a bunch of people in the market have kind of similar positioning. So and that's maybe short term, right? That's maybe like, a week to a month, but there's a lot of supply of that. So that that will keep things range bound, but that I think, like longer term, looking further out, you know, like I said, Bitcoin has this sort of natural narrative. And it's, you know, a very strong one. Like, I think people understand that thesis now, like, if you if you go back through to the last cycle, you know, the 1718 cycle, there wasn't really 100% certainty in people's minds that Bitcoin and crypto generally as an asset class would exist forever, right? I think, well, what we've done in this cycle is we've really chopped off like that left tail. So basically, we've eliminated the possibility that Bitcoin doesn't exist as a as a sort of like idea as a concept in future and people understand it's going to exist. If for no other reason than then it has, you know, an ETF that traded, you know, CME futures that that are linked to it. And, you know, every hedge fund and venture firm in the world has some exposure to it, right? It's just very hard to kind of eliminate that. And so, you know, we're at the point now, where it has to exist like people need to, which means that it's going to trade the same way that a lot of other risk assets that people need. It'll just follow them. So follow equity is it'll follow commodities, you know, gold to some extent, it'll just be a piece of people's portfolios. forever. And so in the long run, like obviously, it'll, it'll probably rebound and compact and trade at a fair level where people kind of want to have to, you know, want to hold it in their portfolios. And, and, you know, I think it'll, like I said earlier, it'll trickle down from Bitcoin to kind of the rest of the the asset class, whether it's eath, or other layer ones, or, you know, application layer tokens, things like that. Yeah.

Foxley: Awesome. And that was great information on the range bound price of Bitcoin I know because of the derivatives trap it's it's involved with right now. That's great information. Josh, thank you so much for joining us on the compass podcast. Really appreciate your insights into the local market right now. Definitely something our audience need to listen to. And, again, thank you for your time. Where can people find you? Is Twitter the best place or anywhere else? Yeah,

Lim: I'm on Twitter as Joshua underscore, J underscore Lim.

Foxley: Awesome. Okay. Thanks again for your time and talk to you soon. All right. Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Hosted by Will Foxley